Thursday, March 12, 2009
Update...
I'm getting crushed in the Market...everythings down. But this isn't short term investing...I'm looking at the long term. I'm looking 3-5 years down the road. But, dang, is it disheartening to look at my teamfolio. I'll slow down on the buying and spend a little more time researching and figuring out Twitter. Ha.
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
the home team...
Admit or don't...everyone playing fantasy sports has got a home team bias. I see it year after year, marginal players from hometown teams tend to make fantasy rosters after showing just a tad bit of talent or production. Why not, right? Local news provides a bit more in-depth coverage, you also get to watch games live so "personal scouting" plays a factor, and of course, production from a home town player is that much more vindicating. For example, in my Hawaii leagues, Shane Victorino is drafted a few notches higher than normal. And in my Seattle leagues, players like Seneca Wallace, Wladimir Balentien and Damien Wilkins (when he was on the Sonics, not this OKC thunder crap) routinely got shuffled into rosters.
So does that apply in investing? It should right? I should have more access to the information just based on my general closeness, geography-wise. And that information can come from local newspapers, local magazines, or just word on the street. Either way, hopefully that gives me a better understanding of what's to come...and top that off...I get a sense of local pride. So who have I locked in on for my next pick?
Hoku Scientific: HOKU
Who are they: an alternate engery company, they specialize in fuel cells and solar energy (both the polysilicon and the photovoltaic systems )
Why I like them:
1 - they are local (as explained)
2 - oil/gas is a limited resource and something that flucuates like crazy. Right now the price of gas is decently cheap but just 6 months ago we were complaining about $4.00 per gallon. At some point, oil is going to be so limited that we need to turn to renewable energy sources.
3 - Hawaii is a hot bed for alternate engery and Hoku sits pretty close to the forefront on that. With the Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative (HCEI), Hawaii is aiming to have 70 percent of the states electricity from renewable sources. So that's gotta bode well for Hoku.
So them's my reason and Hoku Scientific is my pick. I'm starting to fill out this Teamfolio with some small cap teams, so I might start looking a little bigger soon. Regardless, here's one for the home team.
So does that apply in investing? It should right? I should have more access to the information just based on my general closeness, geography-wise. And that information can come from local newspapers, local magazines, or just word on the street. Either way, hopefully that gives me a better understanding of what's to come...and top that off...I get a sense of local pride. So who have I locked in on for my next pick?
Hoku Scientific: HOKU
Who are they: an alternate engery company, they specialize in fuel cells and solar energy (both the polysilicon and the photovoltaic systems )
Why I like them:
1 - they are local (as explained)
2 - oil/gas is a limited resource and something that flucuates like crazy. Right now the price of gas is decently cheap but just 6 months ago we were complaining about $4.00 per gallon. At some point, oil is going to be so limited that we need to turn to renewable energy sources.
3 - Hawaii is a hot bed for alternate engery and Hoku sits pretty close to the forefront on that. With the Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative (HCEI), Hawaii is aiming to have 70 percent of the states electricity from renewable sources. So that's gotta bode well for Hoku.
So them's my reason and Hoku Scientific is my pick. I'm starting to fill out this Teamfolio with some small cap teams, so I might start looking a little bigger soon. Regardless, here's one for the home team.
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
Apple w/o Jobs
I'm a big fan of apple. I've got a bunch of their products, including a macbook, iphone, couple ipods and the Nike+ thing that I never use (but glad I have just in case the mood strikes me to run to the beat of today's most popular songs). Anyway...I figured as one part of my hopefully diversified teamfolio (a term I'm trying to coin based on the idea that this is both a fantasy team and investment portfolio, but I digress)...I've always thought Apple would take the spot of "technology retailer".
However, a couple recent news tidbits to note:
#1. Steve Jobs is sick. (And my well wishes go out to both he and his family for a speedy recovery). At first, it was reported that he had a simple hormone deficiency. Now, it is being reported as complications from a previous surgery, essentially something more dangerous than previously noted. Either way, we are looking at the man who ran the show being unavailable for awhile. Now, one man does not a multi-billion dollar company make. But he was iconic, and some of Apple's successes are supposedly directly tied to his leadership. I'd like to make the comparison of Mike D'antoni/Mike Martz = Steve Jobs. And that makes Apple = any Phoenix or NYC basketball players or Rams/Lions/49er WRs or QBs. You get great production from any of those picks based on the leadership of D'antoni, Martz or Jobs. So now, what to do with Apple?? I don't want to pick up Marion without D'antoni or Az Hakim sans Martz. On to point #2...
#2. Apple posted better than expected financials today. They surprised the market. Wall Street expected only so-so production from them, instead we saw some decent numbers. Hmmm...more added to the mix...lastly...
#3. Apple didn't have a flashy new product release this year at MacWorld. Instead, they spoke of their DRM-free music. And all I see are articles about the low cost Netbooks competitors are providing.
So where does that leave me? Well I'm going to hold off on buying just yet. There's still some research I need to do. But I am leaning towards buy, even in the face of a missing CEO, low confidence on Wall Street and a lack of flashy products. And why?
Well I'm thinking their movie rental business is going to boom...and pretty soon the flashy and simple Apple TV is going to take over the world. And that will push this company even higher. But more research is needed on that topic and then I'll jump on in.
Friday, January 16, 2009
2nd pick...
They always say, "invest in what you know." Now I'm not sure who "they" are...but I do hear that phrase quite a bit. Anyway, I work with a bank and I work in marketing...so I decided to look in that direction. And that little headstart brought me to the following pick...
Umpqua Bank (ticker symbol UMPQ: NASDAQ)
Now in Fantasy Sports...I love a good sleeper. I'm mean, come on now, who doesn't? Find that gem that only a few people are talking about and then have that player blow up and provide great value. There's nothing better in Fantasy Sports. I'm talking 2009's Steve Slaton, 2006's Mark Teahan, 2006's Marques Colston (who was TE eligible in Yahoo leagues back then) or 2005's Boris Diaw.
Well in the 2009 Investment draft, I'm looking at you Umpqua Bank.
And what's makes this bank in Oregon a sleeper, you might ask? It's a "small cap". I'm being told that means the company valued between $300M and $2B. Decently small in the world of investing with room to grow. UMPQ sits at a market cap of $550M being sold at $9.50 a share.
So what do I like about this sleeper? A couple things:
#1 - I dig their vision. They are a progressive bank. Marketing-wise they are doing some cool things (see their "store" layouts). Their website looks great. And from a product standpoint, they have some neat ideas (check out Green Street Lending). Now, being progressive isn't always a good thing. Sometimes people get ahead of themselves and the market. But in this case, I like what UMPQ stands for. They talk about keeping the focus on being a "community bank" and "slow banking". I could go on and on why I like that...but just take a look at their website for a flavor of their ideals (umpquabank.com).
#2 - The government likes them too. They were one of the banks who got a portion of money from the "bailout". Now that sounds like a bad thing but they didn't get the money cause they were in trouble. No, in fact, they had plenty of cash reserves, unlike the troubled banks. They were chosen as a bank to back by the government based on the merit of their standing and future.
#3 - The current economy. Recent news doesn't put the finance sector in a good light. In fact, people are predicting gloom and doom for financials. To me it looks like this financial trouble was caused by big banks getting too big. These huge banks were willing to take tons of risk because of their size, forgetting about the principles that made them strong institutions in the first place. So now, I'm looking for growth from small, strong, community-oriented banks. And it looks like in Oregon, Umpqua has done a solid job laying that foundation. They've also begun to expand into surrounding areas (Washington & Northern Cali) and they've expanded their services as well (a new asset management division).
Them's my reasons. Disagree if you like. Regardless I'm in for $9.50 a share and we'll see how that turns out.
Now, I'm not looking for this bank to take over the world. Nah, I'm just expecting it to grow a little, mature and expand. It has its niche and should excel in it.
I'm comparing them to Ichiro in his rookie year. Corner outfielder with little power. A little strange for the times (he wasn't all HR or nothing). He didn't/doesn't walk much but doesn't strikeout much either. He's not your prototypical player but he does really, really well for a team in Avg and Runs. And he ended up MVP that year. So here's to hoping that UMPQ turns out to be my MVP.
(for more on Market Cap I found the following article below)
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/basics/03/031703.asp
Umpqua Bank (ticker symbol UMPQ: NASDAQ)
Now in Fantasy Sports...I love a good sleeper. I'm mean, come on now, who doesn't? Find that gem that only a few people are talking about and then have that player blow up and provide great value. There's nothing better in Fantasy Sports. I'm talking 2009's Steve Slaton, 2006's Mark Teahan, 2006's Marques Colston (who was TE eligible in Yahoo leagues back then) or 2005's Boris Diaw.
Well in the 2009 Investment draft, I'm looking at you Umpqua Bank.
And what's makes this bank in Oregon a sleeper, you might ask? It's a "small cap". I'm being told that means the company valued between $300M and $2B. Decently small in the world of investing with room to grow. UMPQ sits at a market cap of $550M being sold at $9.50 a share.
So what do I like about this sleeper? A couple things:
#1 - I dig their vision. They are a progressive bank. Marketing-wise they are doing some cool things (see their "store" layouts). Their website looks great. And from a product standpoint, they have some neat ideas (check out Green Street Lending). Now, being progressive isn't always a good thing. Sometimes people get ahead of themselves and the market. But in this case, I like what UMPQ stands for. They talk about keeping the focus on being a "community bank" and "slow banking". I could go on and on why I like that...but just take a look at their website for a flavor of their ideals (umpquabank.com).
#2 - The government likes them too. They were one of the banks who got a portion of money from the "bailout". Now that sounds like a bad thing but they didn't get the money cause they were in trouble. No, in fact, they had plenty of cash reserves, unlike the troubled banks. They were chosen as a bank to back by the government based on the merit of their standing and future.
#3 - The current economy. Recent news doesn't put the finance sector in a good light. In fact, people are predicting gloom and doom for financials. To me it looks like this financial trouble was caused by big banks getting too big. These huge banks were willing to take tons of risk because of their size, forgetting about the principles that made them strong institutions in the first place. So now, I'm looking for growth from small, strong, community-oriented banks. And it looks like in Oregon, Umpqua has done a solid job laying that foundation. They've also begun to expand into surrounding areas (Washington & Northern Cali) and they've expanded their services as well (a new asset management division).
Them's my reasons. Disagree if you like. Regardless I'm in for $9.50 a share and we'll see how that turns out.
Now, I'm not looking for this bank to take over the world. Nah, I'm just expecting it to grow a little, mature and expand. It has its niche and should excel in it.
I'm comparing them to Ichiro in his rookie year. Corner outfielder with little power. A little strange for the times (he wasn't all HR or nothing). He didn't/doesn't walk much but doesn't strikeout much either. He's not your prototypical player but he does really, really well for a team in Avg and Runs. And he ended up MVP that year. So here's to hoping that UMPQ turns out to be my MVP.
(for more on Market Cap I found the following article below)
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/basics/03/031703.asp
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